What is the reason for the complete separation of the United States-China is not possible?

The fierce competition for power between the US and China can be said to be a defining feature of the first half of this century. Few, however, have been able to agree on exactly what definition should contain this rivalry.

Some have called it a ‘chronic rivalry’ similar to the long conflict between Germany and Britain that began before the two world wars of the last century. Still others fear that America and China are headed for a war similar to the one between Sparta (the dominant power at the time) and Athens (the emerging power) in the fifth century BC. The problem is that a U.S.-China conflict is inevitable—an idea that, once established in everyone’s mind, can automatically become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

‘Prolonged rivalry’ itself is a misleading phrase. Think about the stages that Sino-US relations have gone through since the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) came to power in 1949. American and Chinese soldiers killed each other on the Korean peninsula in the 1950s.

Then in the 1970s, the two countries came closer due to the historic visit of US President Richard Nixon to China. During this period, the United States and China began to cooperate closely to keep the Soviet Union in check.

In the 1990s, economic ties between the two countries continued to grow. Based on this, the United States supported China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. US leaders are now calling China an “ongoing threat” to the US economy, politics and military system, unlike before 2016.

If the long-standing rivalry between these two countries does not eventually turn into violent conflict, what will happen to the ongoing Cold War between them?

If the term ‘prolonged competition’ means long-term competition, we are already in that situation. But if we look from the vantage point of historical comparison, we risk being misled about the challenges of the US-China relationship.

There was a high level of military interdependence between the United States and the Soviet Union on a global scale. But there was virtually no economic, social or ecological interdependence between them. From that point of view, it can be understood that today’s China-US relationship is completely different.

Today’s world system is structured in such a way that America cannot completely withdraw its trade and investment from China without causing great harm to itself and the global economy. Moreover, the United States and its allies now feel threatened not only by the spread of communist ideology; They are also concerned about threats to the interdependent world order in economic and political spheres.

For security reasons, the United States can partially disengage with China; But overall, severing ties with China would be extremely costly for the US. Few of America’s allies would agree to follow this policy. Because more and more countries prefer China as their main trading partner over the US.

There are also environmental aspects of interdependence that make US disengagement from China impossible. No country can tackle climate change, pandemic threats or other international problems alone. For better or worse, we are locked in a ‘collaborative rivalry’ with China. As a result, this situation cannot be compared with the Cold War situation.

– Joseph S. Nye is a former Assistant Secretary of Defense of the United States and a professor at Harvard University